The Roman empire was invaded, conquered and destroyed by barbarians who swarmed in. Today, that future faces all the Western countries, with Europe at the forefront of the threat.
The similarities between then and now are striking.
The start of the end is precisely dated, AD 376. The western empire ended exactly a century later. The eastern half survived another millennium but it too succumbed to barbarian invaders, ultimately the muslim Turks.
In AD 376, Goths showed up at the Danube frontier and requested entry. At that moment, the Goths were not invaders. No, they were refugees, even asylum-seekers, who had been pushed west by the Huns.
The Romans did not want the Goths but they were in a difficult position. Local Roman military forces were minimal. The eastern emperor, Valens, and his army were in the Middle East, at Antioch, intending to fight the Persians.
The Romans had little choice. Some Goths were allowed in and as good a face as possible was put upon it. Very soon there was conflict though ancient sources blamed the Roman initially. Goths soon converted to invaders and, in AD 378, defeated and killed the eastern emperor at the Hadrianople.
That defeat was not inevitable but it happened, and the Romans never got on top of the situation, never able to push the Goths out inspite of strenuous military effort.
Two key points from then are pertinent today: cohesiveness and leadership. Barbarians had been allowed to settle in the empire in the past but the Romans had always been in control. They dictated terms and could militarily smash barbarians who got out of line. Crucially, the Romans spread barbarians throughout the empire so they could not remain, or coalesce into, communities, nor have their own leaders.
But the Goths, and subsequent barbarian nations, did retain their cohesiveness. The Goths were able to establish kingdoms on Roman territory, territory they had alienated. Whole provinces were lost.
This is the threat that makes the muslims more dangerous than the other Third Worlders that have been streaming into Western countries since World War II. The muslims do not integrate. Instead, they build strong alien communities and are capable of throwing up leaders.
One last but very important point: the Goths who arrived at the Danube were a people - men, women and children - rather than an army as such. But they were still invaders, as the muslims et al are now.
It is not inevitable that the West will be conquered by the muslims, but it is looking dangerously likely. Time is running out.
